A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
